Wednesday Winners
By Judd Hall
Perhaps it’s just me, but it seems like Interleague play is just dragging on in baseball. Maybe it’s because the novelty of the games has worn off or some of the matchups don’t exactly make for appointment television (Royals at Astros comes to mind for this one).
Regardless of your take on these contests, it’s something to bet on and that’s always a good thing. We’ve got a full slate of 15 tilts on the board for Wednesday. Let’s take a look at a couple of them.
Cubs at Tigers – 7:05 p.m. EDT
The Cubbies haven’t had the greatest start to their season, but they’re still within reach of the lead in the National League Central. Chicago got back into the discussion thanks to a four-game win streak. That streak was snapped by a 2-0 decision on Monday by the Braves.
One of the problems that Chicago has had this year is its offense. The bats haven’t been all that lively with a .247 batting average, but they’ve popped 72 homers as a club in 2009. During the past week, the Cubs have hit a little better (.257, 8 HR, 25 RBI). And things will no doubt improve in the near future with third baseman Aramis Ramirez set to return to the lineup sometime next week.
Something that is apparent for Cubs fans and bettors alike is that their bats need to work for Rich Harden (4-3, 5.27 ERA) to have a chance at winning. Harden won his “right back” spot on June 19 against the Tribe, 8-7, as a $1.15 home “chalk.”
That win is a little misleading as the North Siders needed Cleveland’s bullpen to implode for that victory. Harden gave up seven earned runs on seven hits in five innings of work. Harden is 0-1 with a 7.36 earned run average this month.
Nothing is guaranteed for Chicago’s batters with the Tigers putting Rick Porcello (8-4, 3.54 ERA) on the mound. Porcello has had a fantastic rookie effort in Detroit’s starting rotation as the team is 8-1 in his last nine starts. He’s been successful in interleague play as evidenced by a 3-0 record and an ERA of 1.48 in three starts against the NL...the last two appearances coming against teams from the NL Central.
Detroit’s right-handed hurler also has a potent lineup giving him some run support. The Motor City Kitties have outscored their opponents 54-25 in his last eight starts. It certainly doesn’t look like Porcello will hurt for offense as the Tigers have hit .302 with 13 home runs and 33 runs batted in over the last seven days.
Gamblers have no doubt noticed that the Cubs have won four straight games against AL Central squads. So does that make it worth while to back Harden in this spot? VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Brian Edwards isn’t so sure. “To me, Harden is a pitcher to ‘pass’ on right now. I’m just not sure what we’re going to get out of him in Detroit.”
Edwards might have something there when you look at the numbers, at least from a fade standpoint with the Cubbies. The Tigers have won four straight against Chicago dating back to 2006 and are 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
This contest looks like a solid ‘over’ play as well with Harden’s problem with locating his pitches and the Tigers’ hot bats. It certainly lends credence to the fact that the ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run between these clubs.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Tigers as $1.15 home favorites (risk $115 to win $100) for this contest with a total of 8 ½.
Rockies at Angels – 10:05 p.m. EDT
On May 29, the Rockies decided to relieve Clint Hurdle of his managerial duties after starting the season 18-28. It appeared that Colorado was ready to just play out the string at that point by promoting bench coach Jim Tracy to fill in for Hurdle. All the Rox have done since the switch is post a 19-5 mark in 24 games.
When you have a team that is running that hot, you start to wonder if you should back off of betting them at the window. “I think you keep playing on Colorado until you see signs of them slowing down, and there certainly haven’t been any recently,” says Edwards, who is up $14,120 for “dime players” since May 1.
“There is absolutely nothing fluky about this run. It started with sweeps of the Cards and Brewers on the road. Then they beat up on the Rays and Mariners at home, who are both over .500. And they just took the Halos to the woodshed in an 11-1 clubbing on Monday.”
What is most surprising about this run is that the Rockies are beating these clubs with their bats or on the mound. Over the last 30 days, Colorado is hitting .281, has a .464 slugging percentage, 33 four-baggers and big league best 146 RBI. The Rox have seen their starters go 13-1 with a 3.16 ERA in their last 15 starts; they only had 15 wins combined in the first 52 games of the 2009 campaign.
It’s going to be hard to go against Colorado on Wednesday with Jason Marquis (9-4, 3.71 ERA) getting the starting nod. Marquis is coming off of a gem of an outing vs. Pittsburgh. He gave up three earned runs on eight hits in 8.2 innings of work to win 7-3 as a $1.65 home favorite on June 19. This is nothing new for the right-hander from Manhasset, New York as he’s 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last seven starts. If there is any knock on Marquis right now it’s that his strikeout-to-walk ratio for those games is 24:19.
The Rox are also getting solid setup work out of Joel Peralta. Since taking over for the injured Manny Corpas, Peralta has logged nine consecutive scoreless appearances to go along with five holds. His 1.54 ERA is tops amongst his bullpen mates. And that helps Huston Street in slamming the door shut. Colorado’s closer has saved 16 of his 17 opportunities…Street had 18 total saves last season in Oakland.
While Colorado is on a Rocky Mountain High (sorry, couldn’t resist it), the Angels are trying to find some consistency. It looked like Los Angeles was on its way after winning seven straight games from June 13 to June 19. Since then, the Halos have dropped three in a row.
A lot of what ails LA is the amount of injuries they’ve had to deal with over the season. They’ve had John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, Torrii Hunter, Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana on the disabled list for some stretch of the season. It hasn’t affected the Angels’ offense for the year, hitting .278 with 63 homers and 316 RBI. In the last seven days, however, they’re batting .248 with six four-baggers and 24 RBI. Their pitching is 26th in the big leagues with a 4.75 ERA and teams are hitting a MLB best .261 against them.
The Halos are hoping that Joe Saunders (7-4, 3.80 ERA) will be able to get them back on track. Saunders’ chances are pretty good here as LA is 2-0 in his last starts…both of which were against teams from the Senior Circuit (Dodgers, Padres). Plus, he’s 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season.
LVSC is giving the edge to the Angels here by making them $1.25 home favorites with a total of nine. You can back Colorado to push through for a return of plus-115 (risk $100 to win $115).
The Rockies have won their last five games against AL West clubs, while Los Angeles is 8-3 in its past 11 tilts against NL West foes. The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
You should take a look at the Rox in this game a little closer as well because the road club has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
vegasinsider